December 29, 2025 Newletter: A different take on predictions, New Year’s resolutions

Pub Date
December 29, 2025
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Being the contrarian that I’ve always been, I’ve never followed the standard rules of New Year’s resolutions. For example, there was the year I decided I would drink more, eat more, and start smoking (two out of three ain’t bad).

I also tend to think about the new year well in advance, which means I don’t look at January 1 so much as a starting line, but rather as a time to kick things up a notch.

I also find that in our industry, a year isn’t the best measure of time.

As the pace of things accelerates, seeing that far into the future becomes increasingly tricky. I’m not even sure measuring by quarter works as well as it used to. Q1 last year, I had search traffic coming to my site. Q1 2026, I will not. Sure, YOY gives us a measure, but it feels like the events that impact us happen when they happen. Revenue forecasting is more predicated on the next big announcement by someone than it is trends of the past…

Of course, there’s always one exception. And there is one trend and the easiest prediction we can make for 2026: the trades will spend the year talking about the decline of publishing. If it hasn’t already been written, there will be a headline that reads, “Is Publishing Dead?”

First, nothing dies. Just stop it with that shit.

I read my first “Is Click-Through Dead?” article almost 20 years ago. Banners die annually. Lazy writing with a lazy take. Here’s one: “Are Headlines That Announce Something is Dead, Dead?” I’d read that.

Second, I can tell you based on all the conversations I’m having is that publishers are making moves. Positive moves. Their stories aren’t as sexy as when publishers fail. It feels like a David and Goliath story, but for some reason the trades are rooting for Goliath.

David picking up a rock: boring. Goliath making the ground shake: awesome!

Quick interruption: I’m making a New Year’s resolution to write a more concise opening so my team isn’t stuck trying to figure out what I’m talking about. (Note from Rob’s editor: Your resolution application has been declined. Keep rambling, thank you. Sincerely, Liz.)

Suffice it to say, at some point we will look at the year that just passed and say that it was better than the year before. Is 2026 going to be better than 2025? For some, for sure. For others, it’ll be making sure we’re around for 2027 and overcoming the predictions that we won’t be around.

For Beeler.Tech, we’re getting our sling ready. We’re here for the long haul.

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It’s the end of the year… somehow, because time is a social construct and/or a flat circle. Regardless of how you choose to justify the obscene way time has flown this year (we’re open to suggestions), here’s a round up of a few of our favorite conversations, editorials, and op-eds that we believe you should carry into the New Year.

They also make great intellectual escapes while you’re trying to avoid conversations about what your resolutions are this year.

  • Publishers, we don’t serve readers or advertisers, we serve shareholders

Advertisers want attention at the lowest dollar amount possible. Shareholders want short-term revenue. And publishers (desperate to keep up) flood the market with more sellers, more partners, and more ads. For instance, we talk in CPMs (cost per thousand impressions). That’s just good branding, because selling one ad for a tenth of a penny sounds like a joke. My kids get $10 from the tooth fairy, and with that they could reach a thousand people on The New York Times. That’s insane.

  • From crawling to collaboration: How publishers can win in the clickless era

The shift is already here. When AI summaries and answer engines sit between users and source sites, clicks fall, sessions shrink, and the value exchange around publisher content erodes. In October’s Camp.Fire session, rev ops leader Scott Messer framed the moment clearly: “This is the crawling to collaboration phase.” This is a transition most publishers still have not operationalized. So where do publishers start?

  • Staying human: How AI is rewiring our minds and our industry

AI has shifted what a single individual can build, learn, or launch without relying on large teams or specialized training. But that empowerment requires a mindset shift: using AI not to do the things we already know how to do, but to explore what we don’t. That requires curiosity, humility, and a willingness to fail: traits that tend to erode as careers mature.

  • Publishers, chasing revenue at all costs is costing you

For those of you reading this who feel exhausted, you’re not alone in feeling that way. No publisher can survive on their own. But if you don’t start working this piece out, you’re not even ready for the next front. Because the game is to be a trusted source around whatever it is you do, and I don’t care if that’s fan fiction or news. That human connection and trust, that’s the game. If you’re not investing in that, you’re going to bleed out everywhere else. Yes, I know, that sounded gross. But it’s true.

  • Tech tax, stack transparency, and why publishers are paying for complexity

Publishers today face a paradox: their ad stacks have never been more sophisticated, yet many are losing more revenue than ever to hidden fees, redundant layers, and opaque optimization logic. What looks like technical evolution often masks a quiet transfer of control - and margin - away from publishers and toward the vendors running the infrastructure.

  • OAO is now adops.com, but the real story is what it means for all of usCraig announced that OAO is now adops.com. Which, let’s be honest, is the kind of rebrand that turns heads in this industry. But here’s the part that matters: this isn’t a marketing play. It’s a signal. The name’s not about them. It’s about what they stand for. Ad ops isn’t an afterthought. It isn’t a ticket queue. It’s where the money comes from. And it’s time people started treating it that way.
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Here’s the latest news, and yes, it’s all true:

  • Aubrey Bergauer to keynote at Base.Camp San Antonio! Aubrey Bergauer drove real results (audience growth, retention, revenue) in a space not exactly known for embracing change: classical music. Her “run it like a business” approach has turned heads for all the right reasons, and it hits especially hard for publishers trying to build sustainable revenue without selling their soul. More details coming soon
  • ICYMI: Base.Camp San Antonio proposed agenda now live! How do we forecast revenue when predictability feels like a joke? Should publishers be building internal sales teams, or is “buy vs. build” still the wrong way to frame it? What can we do right now with the tools, data, and teams we already have? Can we create real scarcity in a world of infinite supply, especially as AI reshapes audience behavior? How do we actually manage across direct, programmatic, and agentic channels without losing the plot? These are just some of the questions we’ll be tackling in San Antonio!
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Let’s talk about 2026, folks, because we’ve got a lot planned:

  • Base.Camp San Antonio: March 1-4, 2026
  • Navigator NYC: May 5, 2026
  • AI Publisher Response: May 6, 2026
  • Navigator London: June 9, 2026
  • Base.Camp La Jolla: October 4-7, 2026
  • Base.Camp Madrid: November 8-11, 2026

Now is the time to raise your hand if you’re interested in attending any of these events. The earlier you raise your hand, the more we can work with you (and your budget) to help you be in the rooms you need to be in.

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A full list of all 2026 events we’re involved in, all in one nice little package:

  • Base.Camp San Antonio - March 1-4, 2026
  • Advertising Economic Forum NYC - March 18-19, 2026
  • Digital Day Camp: Spring - April 15 & 16, 2026
  • Navigator NYC - May 5, 2026
  • AI Publisher Response Event - May 6, 2026
  • Navigator London - June 9, 2026
  • Base.Camp La Jolla - October 4-7, 2026
  • Digital Day Camp: Fall - October 21 & 22, 2026
  • Base.Camp Madrid - November 8-11, 2026
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